A Gambling Guide to Game Four

Hey Guys,

After my picks for Games 2 and 3, I wouldn’t blame you if you stopped reading and went on with your busy, interesting lives.

Guys, this is why it is nearly impossible to consistently make money picking individual games.

Let me put this nicely.  On a day to day basis, how can I responsibly put money on the shoulders of athletes who show up drunk to games, assault their girlfriends and have mysterious packages shipped to them?  I can’t.  They are too many variables for me.  In the market, I’m not counting on a company’s (team’s) performance.  I’m counting on my peers’ perceptions of these performances.

Just wait until the start of next season when DRAT gives you our O/U NBA team wins.  We’ll go at least 60%; I can guarantee it.  (Did I use that semi-colon correctly?)

Needless to say, I wasn’t banking on San Antonio knocking down 16 treys and setting a new NBA Finals record. Danny Green and Gary Neal probably saw my prediction and said to hell with Stavi and his stupid prophecies.   Even with the 16 treys, the two teams only combined for 190 and just barely covered the spread of 188.

Nevertheless, the narrow spread in Game 3 proved to hold true.  Narrow spreads mean STAY AWAY and unless you truly are the Long Island Medium (Happy Birthday Hannah), you couldn’t have told me that the Spurs would have put on a whooping like that.  When the “price” is that off from the actual outcome, Vegas either makes a fortune or gets killed.  If you want to make money, stay away from close spreads. Vegas is telling you: WE DON’T WHO WILL WIN: STAY AWAY BUT WE WILL GLADLY TAKE YOUR MONEY.

But now for tonight’s matchup, Game 4 in San Antonio.   Here’s my common courtesy to you:

Miami -1.5

Miami -125 San Antonio +105

O/U 186.5

We just talked about the narrow spread, so you know by now Vegas doesn’t have a clue about tonight’s victor. You would think Lebron would prove all the naysayers wrong and come out to play tonight.  But that would be too predictable.  I can’t pick against the Heat, but last game’s performance doesn’t necessarily instill confidence.  But, nobody’s got a gun to my head. I’ll hold.

In terms of the O/U, I’ll double down because YOU ALWAYS DOUBLE DOWN ON ELEVEN.  But seriously, no way the Spurs shoot the rock like Game 3.  While Miami will score more points, I’m following the smart money.  The line opened at 188 and has tumbled to its current mark of 186.5. That’s a bearish engulfing pattern if you ask me.  Under and load up the truck.

Of course, you guys should disregard everything I just said if you want to make money.

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