Buy em, Sell em, Hold em with the Stavster: Southwest Division (Part Deux)

 

Dwight_Howard_Houston_Rockets

Hey Guys,

Hope your weekend was as good as mine.  LOL, Larry, LOL.

Anyways, back to the grind.  Reading DRaT is the perfect remedy for a case of the Tuesdays.  So, sit back, relax and enjoy reading about the rest of the Southwest Division.

Houston Rockets: Buy

While I’ve had my ups and downs as an investor (see: estate sales, ticket scalps, VRNG, and ZNGA just to name a few), Bikshorn and I really hit it out of the park on this one. Last October, we partook in three O/Us for NBA team wins.  Our most confident wager- the Houston Rockets winning more than 29 contests. Similar to the stock market, bookies are capable of having short-term market inefficiencies.   As shrewd investors, we bought into Houston on the night of the James Harden rumor.  Needless to say, it was easy money as the Rockets won 45 games.

With the entrance of a certain big man into H-Town, I think that the Rockets are still way undervalued. While Howard and Co. will most definitely face a steep learning curve, the tandem of Dwight and Harden is too good not to succeed. Combined with some mixture of Jeremy Lin, Patrick Beverley, Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik, Houston’s got the pieces to prosper both in the present and future. Eventually, the Rockets will usurp the Spurs in terms of dominating basketball in the State of Texas.  With greater market share, comes greater stock price.

Bold Prediction: They probably come of the gates cold, underachieve the first couple months of the season and start to figure it out around late December.  Needless to say, I’ll be placing a significant wager on them to win it all if their odds become too lucrative to pass up. GM Darryl Morey has had this plan since we graduated high school in 2010. I buy innovative, forward-thinking CEOs.

Dallas Mavericks: Sell

How do I put this nicely? The Mavs are so screwed it’s not even funny. They have a roster built around an aging superstar and missed out on Deron Williams and Dwight Howard in successive off-seasons. Yikes. Perhaps the biggest problem for the organization is that the owner won’t let them be bad. Isn’t that a bit ironic?

Mark Cuban simply has too much invested in his Mavericks’ organization.  I’m not even talking about money. The guy just loves his basketball team too much to allow a complete overhaul.  He’s a nut. From the basketball side of the equation, the roster is stacked…if we were preparing for the 2006-2007 season. This year’s projected starting lineup:

C Sam Dalembert, F Dirk Nowitzki, F Vince Carter G Monta Ellis G Jose Calderon.

Nowadays, they’d get run off the court at Life Time. Needless to say, I’m gonna bet the over in every single, spur-of-the-moment wager I make involving Dallas. Yeah, they might score a lot of points.  But they sure as hell won’t play a lick of defense. While Jose Calderon is surely an upgrade over Darren Collison, I’d rather see MOT Gal Mekel get a chance down in the Dirty D.

Having said all that, they might actually sneak into the playoffs as an 8th seed.  While I’d like to think Cuban’s got a couple tricks up his sleeve, I just don’t see that much additional upside with this organization.

New Orleans Pelicans: Hold

I love birds.  My friends call me the Bird Man.  While I certainly cannot fly, I have freakishly long arms that resemble wings.  Oh, and I love to chirp. Though I’m a bird enthusiast, I’m not necessarily sold on the future on these birds.

Here are a couple things I do like:

  • That the team is called the Pelicans–it’s dope.
  • The combination of Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson in the frontcourt–this duo has skills that perfectly complement one another.  With Davis taking up space down low and Anderson hoisting 3s on the perimeter, the Pelicans will be a spacing nightmare for opposing squads.  While Davis is no Dwight Howard, it should be noted that both Dwight and Anderson had their best years together.  Round two much with Davis and Anderson?
  • Bringing in Jrue Holiday- While Holiday struggled in the second half of last season, I still think it was a shrewd move to bring the All-Star point guard to the Big Easy.  A more than capable facilitator, Holiday will be the ringleader of a very young team.  He’s going to need to step up and teach Austin Rivers how to play in the NBA.

Things that scare me:

  • A glut of “me-first” guards in the back court–with Tyreke Evans signing on, the Pelicans employ the services of Evans, Eric Gordon, Holiday and Rivers.  Problem is, this group of players cannot play off the ball. It remains to be seen if there will be enough minutes to appease them all.  Head Coach Monty Williams will surely have to mix and match lineups throughout the entire season.
  • In terms of speculation, I’d rather see this type of investment opportunity be farther along the curve.  I don’t necessarily want to rip my hair out watching Evans and Gordon hog the ball all game.
  • The team from the Big Easy is hardly an Easy way to make money.  I’ll hold off on this one going into the season.

Anyways, I hope you enjoyed today’s segment.  Before I conclude the series with our final division, I’m going to set up a hedge for you to make money on this year’s MVP race.

Sayonara,

-Steve

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