NBA FanDuel: Control the Process, not the Results

If you haven’t noticed by now, DRosesAndThorns.com is on a quest to provide you with the most thorough NBA FanDuel advice on the internet.  Given our love for fantasy sports and our analytical backgrounds, it’s more or less a no-brainer that we dabble in DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports). If you haven’t yet joined FanDuel, get on that now.

While I’m not going to sit here and tell you that you’re going to make thousands of dollars blindly following my picks, I’m going to teach you some skills that will hopefully give you a consistent edge and yield to profits down the road.

When it comes to trading stocks and FanDuel alike, you can control your process and the risks associated with the process but ultimately, the results are not in your hands.

So, let’s figure out how to control our process.

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1) Understanding the Risk-Reward Relationship.  When assessing how to allocate one’s salary cap, it’s important to think about if the juice is worth the squeeze.  In other words, are all the stars aligned for this player to excel this evening and does his price tag justify taking a stab on him?  These are the types of things you have to consider when formulating your roster.  LeBron James might be the best player on Earth, but does his $10,600 price tag present a good value?  When I said control the process, I basically mean understand all the risks associated with your choices.  Knowing the bear side of the argument against your player will help you make a more transparent decision when it comes to “hitting” or “fading” a particular player.

2) Exploiting Pockets of Excess Demand and Supply– Yep, it goes back to the crap I was writing about our fantasy basketball league last week.  In order to take advantage of the entirety of your cap,  it’s so pivotal to figure out which positions are deeper and which are shallower.  Often times, the gaps between players in FanDuel is small on a busy night in the NBA.  This phenomena provides FanDuel participants more flexibility in their decision making.  Days like yesterday, however, the gaps can be huge because of the night’s barren schedule.   If exploited properly, one can extract much more value by spending less on deeper positions and more on their scarce counterparts.

And that brings us to understanding what value in FanDuel really means..

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3) Installing a New Definition of Value– Most people on FanDuel believe that value = getting good players/matchups for lower sums of money.  While there is certainly a lot of truth to this mantra, the equation is severely lacking in my opinion.  Because FanDuel participants are competing against a field of their peers, it is utterly crucial to pick players that no one else is picking.  While price tags are definitely important, this nuance is almost more instrumental to generating consistent success. Blake Griffin on a shallow day is a no-brainer when the next best alternative is Thaddeus Young.  Everyone knows that..76.7% of lineups in my tournament had Blake suiting up for them…I did not and managed to cash.

I believe that there is too much risk in loading up on popular guys. In contests like FanDuel, you want to minimize the things that need to go right for you to place.  By picking highly-selected assets into your lineup, you need those players to kill it (for lack of a better term) and also for your secondary pairings to outperform the secondary pairings of your peers.  That’s a tall order night in and night out. Too tall for me at least…

4) Keeping Your Eye on Social Media– Like any market, developing a nose for how things shake out is critical to success in the FanDuel domain.  At the end of the day, we’re disguising basketball games as market psychology.  What’s the best of seeing your opponents’ hand?  Scouring the internet, of course.  Whether it’s as simple as fading the FanDuel insider articles or searching #NBA #DFS #Fanduel on twitter and looking at other peoples’ lineups, gauging market participation and sentiment is really the number one key to succeeding consistently.  At the end of the day, I’m a patron of the opposite side of popular belief.   While your friends might think you’re crazy, gaming FanDuel is not about disproving one’s crainzess.  It’s about making money.

Thanks for reading and please watch my picks video later this afternoon.

Other useful resources: sportsbook.ag– We like to take stud players in games with high over/under totals with tight spreads and we like taking chances on hopefuls in high over/under matchups with significant point spreads.  rotogrinders.com– Sites like this have great daily value reports as well as position vs. opposing defense rating systems.  Rotoworld.com is my favorite source of gathering pivotal game-night player information.  

 

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